Based on what we know about Mike Martz, who was introduced
Tuesday as the San Francisco 49ers’ new offensive coordinator,
quarterback Alex Smith can start packing his bags. There is little
chance he will be back with the Niners when they start the 2008
season.
Based on what we know about Mike Martz, who was introduced Tuesday as the San Francisco 49ers’ new offensive coordinator, quarterback Alex Smith can start packing his bags. There is little chance he will be back with the Niners when they start the 2008 season.
Why?
Well, the reasoning is based on recent history, which is often times the best indicator of what’s to come.
Martz, who was fired a little over week ago by the Detroit Lions after two mediocre seasons in Motown, happens to be walking into a very similar situation in San Francisco to what he was welcomed to Detroit.
Looking to change the Lions’ losing culture and create a spark in 2005, the first thing Martz did was begin installing his system, which is considered to be the most complex in the NFL. To begin this process, he had to evaluate personnel. Martz’ offense relies on excellent blocking at the tackle positions (specifically left tackle since it covers most quarterback’s blind side), receivers who can get upfield and come out of their breaks quickly, and a quarterback that isn’t scared to take a beating by standing in the pocket until the very last second.
The incumbent quarterback on that 2005 Lions team was a guy named Joey Harrington. Remember Joey “Heisman”? He came to Detroit billed as the franchise savior. The third overall pick in the 2002 draft, Harrington was considered a perfect West Coast Offense quarterback. He led the University of Oregon impressively, compiling a 25-3 career record as a starter.
But by the time Martz came to Detroit, hailed as the “mad scientist” for the high-powered offense he designed in St. Louis – which at times was maddening to fans due to the lack of running plays called , Harrington had already had his toughness questioned and his confidence shaken over three previous seasons. Fans complained that he was too soft, with two points of proof being made most often – one, Harrington admitted to seeing a sports psychologist; and two, he enjoyed playing the piano. (I still don’t get the piano knock.)
Even one of his teammates, cornerback Dre Bly, openly criticized the quarterback in front of the media. The result was Harrington wanted out by the time Martz arrived. Harrington most likely wouldn’t have lasted long anyway. His skill set – a somewhat accurate passer that likes to get rid of the ball quickly – didn’t mesh with Martz’ philosophy of standing strong in the pocket and throwing the ball downfield.
Now, for you Niners fans out there, try not to punch yourself in the face as you read this next sentence. Considering the factors that made Harrington expendable in Martz’ system, Alex Smith looks like he’s becoming, gulp, the next Joey Harrington.
And Martz, along with just about every other NFL offensive coordinator, doesn’t want or need the next Joey Harrington.
When it comes to a skill set, Smith has mobility and a fairly accurate arm (when healthy that is), but he is not exceptional at throwing the ball down the field. He’s more Jeff Garcia than Kurt Warner. So, in this respect, Smith doesn’t fit Martz’ offense.
When it comes to expectations, Smith has had plenty of them due to being the top pick in the 2005 draft. He wasn’t considered a can’t miss star, but he was called a safe pick out of the University of Utah, noted for his intangible abilities. Since that time (three years, the same amount of time Harrington had in Detroit before Martz arrived), Smith has been inconsistent or injured. Which means, in terms of expectations, Smith has been a bust in his short career.
The most obvious – and most crucial – factor that makes Smith look like the next Harrington, though, is the manner in which the team is turning against him.
Smith’s feud with 49ers head coach Mike Nolan went public this season after the two sparred over how severe an injury to Smith’s throwing shoulder was. Rumors came out that Nolan even told other players in the 49ers locker room that Smith’s injury was being overblown.
Exaggerating injuries is one thing that definitely doesn’t fly in the tough-guy game of football.
If Smith has, in fact, lost the confidence of the locker room, he is already done as a Niner. For a quarterback, it’s nearly impossible to be effective when your teammates don’t believe in you.
If that doesn’t get Smith out of town, the hiring of Martz most likely will.
Martz will be running the 49ers’ offense exclusively now, becoming the fourth offensive coordinator Smith will have had in four years. Nolan is expected to take a hands-off approach to the offense since he is primarily a defensive coach, and Martz is a dictator when it comes to his system. (Ex: Martz never allows his quarterbacks to audible.)
Having control over the offense will include determining who fits personnel needs. If Martz feels that Smith doesn’t have the proper attitude or skills to handle the position, he will cut him. No questions asked. Okay, Martz would have to answer a few questions because cutting a top pick is a big deal. It means a franchise has failed in making the right moves to get back to respectability.
But if this turns out to be the case, there is one person who would be left far less exposed to criticism and controversy: Mike Nolan.
Nolan would be able to point to Martz as the person who made the call to cut Smith. The head coach might say it’s an issue between quarterback and coordinator.
The two men, Smith and Nolan, who have been linked together since each joined San Francisco in 2005, would then be able to go their separate ways without so much as a conversation. In a sense, it would be like breaking up with a significant other through a friend.
The result would go something like this: Smith becomes the newest face of top picked-passers turned failures, Martz becomes the face of the 49ers’ passing game and Nolan becomes the face of the passive-aggressive game.
Of course, all of this will take weeks to months to unfold. Martz has only been in town for a day.
For now, we wait.
In the meantime, it wouldn’t be a bad idea for Smith to start looking into buying some new luggage.
