Now that the new year is here, I’d like to encourage everyone in
the South Valley region to make a resolution to go on a diet. I’m
specifically talking about the King Hubbert Energy Diet.
Now that the new year is here, I’d like to encourage everyone in the South Valley region to make a resolution to go on a diet. I’m specifically talking about the King Hubbert Energy Diet.
I bet you’ve probably never heard of Dr. Hubbert. His name is not as well known in the dieting business as Atkins, Jenny Craig or Weight Watchers. The reason is that Hubbert’s life work really didn’t have much to do with the energy calories contained in cuisine. He focused instead on the energy calories in petroleum fuel.
With this upcoming presidential election now going into full swing, I would love to hear some contender for the Oval Office inform the nation of Hubbert’s important discovery about our planet’s oil supply. What Hubbert has to say to our nation’s future energy supply is far more important than any current campaign issue.
Hubbert worked from 1943 to 1964 as a geologist at Shell Oil Company’s research laboratory in Houston. He made many important discoveries relating to the capacity of oil and natural gas reserves. Among them was a demonstration that Earth’s supply of crude oil is finite. The planet isn’t creating much crude anymore – an important fact to bear in mind in relation to Hubbert’s most famous finding.
While at Shell, he came up with a mathematical theory that showed the rate of petroleum production for any given geographical region – be it a single oil field or the entire planet – would resemble a bell curve. The data on this curve shows when, based on consumption rates, oil production most likely will hit a peak. After that point, the production will begin a descent until the supply is tapped out.
In ordinary terms, Hubbert’s curve serves much as a gasoline gauge does in a car. It warns us how much fuel we have left before we need to hit the next service station.
Hubbert used his curve to predict that America’s oil reserve would peak between the late 1960s and the early 1970s. He hit a bull’s eye when U.S. oil production did indeed peak in 1970. The National Academy of Sciences confirmed that fact, and Hubbert’s Curve became a celebrity in the energy industry.
Focusing next on the world’s oil supply, the geophysicist predicted that “if current trends continue,” the global peak in petroleum production would arrive around 1995. “The end of the Oil Age is in sight,” he told Congress. Current trends didn’t continue, however, as the oil crisis of the 1970s spurred conservation and more fuel-efficiency in the 1980s.
But Hubbert wasn’t far off the mark. Just ask my friend Mike Cox, a Morgan Hill man whose company Anaerobe Systems is developing a commercial way to use bacteria to make hydrogen energy out of food and agricultural leftovers. Cox recently told me that the planet might have reached peak oil production in 2006.
If that’s true, the global gas gauge just hit the half way mark. Unfortunately, there’s no service station ahead for a fill up. As Hubbert showed, petroleum fuel is finite.
I did a little research to find out what petroleum experts say about this ominous 2006 peak date. It turns out Cox might be correct. The U.S. Energy Information Administration published data recently that suggests the planet’s oil production might have maxed in 2006. Last October, the Energy Watch Group published a report that concluded we did indeed hit this historic high mark. Even oilmen in Texas and Saudi Arabia admit we might have reached the summit of oil production in 2006.
What makes matters worse is that global society is dramatically upping its consumption of petroleum. Nations like China and India with their billions of people are rapidly industrializing. We as a world need to seriously consider how to adapt to a civilization now beginning its oil supply plunge.
That brings us back to the King Hubbert Energy Diet. The South Valley region can play its part in tackling the troubling question of our global energy future. How? Everyone here – individuals and businesses – can begin considering ways we can reduce our energy usage. We’re going to have to make big changes anyway when it comes to energy, so we might was well start now.
During the next 12 months, my column will be discussing energy and the South Valley. As for this weekend, I’d like to persuade you to consider developing habits in 2008 to save energy in your life. Please make a resolution to “think thin” when it comes to your daily energy consumption. Start your diet today.
