Gilroy schools brace for student growth

Surges of new students that swelled Gilroy classrooms during a decade of growth and drove construction of the nearly $158 million Christopher High School are a thing of the past—at least for a while; after that it’s anyone’s guess.
That’s the message school officials received in a surprising new report on enrollment projections. It and other data suggest that while near-term student growth will be lower than expected, thousands of new homes will be built in as little as ten years and classrooms will swell.
“It’s astronomical,” schools superintendent Debbie Flores told a school board meeting January 15^th. “If everything goes bonkers…five thousand (new homes) are possible in the next decade,” she said, adding “We have to make our best guess” about student numbers when planning for new facilities can take five years.
The near-term projections that took Gilroy Unified School District trustees by surprise at their Jan. 15 meeting raised questions about whether a new elementary school envisioned south of First Street is really needed.
“We had it in our heads that we were positively going to have a new elementary school in five years…I am surprised the need is not that great,” trustee Mark Good said Tuesday.
The figures suggest housing types being built will not produce as many students as earlier projected because some will be occupied by older families with fewer or no children compared to young ones.
The finely nuanced enrollment analysis by district consultant Tom Williams elicited talk about the new school, uneven growth in attendance areas, redrawing boundaries that have defined the district’s commitment to neighborhood schools—even bussing students.
A five-story affordable housing project approved for Tenth and Alexander streets by the railroad tracks is in such a dangerous location students will have to be bussed outside that attendance area, trustee Jaime Rosso said.
They likely will go to Las Animas School, Alvaro Meza, assistant schools superintendent, said Wednesday because nearby schools are full. He called it a “unique” situation.
Attendance areas that will be most affected by coming growth are the Gilroy High School, Ascencion Solorzano Middle School and Las Animas School attendance areas, officials said – all south of First Street where most near term growth is expected.
Driving that growth are housing projects in construction—including the sprawling Glen Loma Ranch along Santa Teresa Boulevard—or ready to break ground at any time—such as the five-story, affordable housing project.  
In all, 1,890 housing units have been approved for building or are under review—4,000 more are possible if a 700-acre-plus annexation request is approved.