Now that Gov. Gray Davis has failed in his strategy of keeping
all major Democrats out of the race to replace him, the next
question is when does the Republican primary election season
end?
Now that Gov. Gray Davis has failed in his strategy of keeping all major Democrats out of the race to replace him, the next question is when does the Republican primary election season end?
What Republican primary season, you may ask? The one in progress right now. Democrats have already finished their de facto primary campaign, which lasted all of two days.
Republicans now have had four significant candidates on the replacement ballot and Democrats only one.
The Democrats solved their problem by convincing Insurance Commissioner John Garamendi to drop out just two days after he announced he was getting in. Party leaders argued that if Democrats arrived at Election Day with more than one significant candidate to replace Davis, they would be at a great disadvantage. That’s true for Republicans, too, as it’s axiomatic that a divided party is a losing party.
If Davis is “toast,” as San Francisco Congresswoman Nancy Pelosi, the House Democratic leader, reportedly told a meeting of California Democrats in Washington, then Republicans need to work as intensely to concentrate their vote on one candidate as Democrats worked on getting Garamendi out.
In this telescoped election season, the GOP may have no more than approximately one month to accomplish this. So it will be a primary by poll, with surveys taken during that time, public and private, crucial to party decisions.
For sure, the GOP will have to decide who to back before sending out slate mailer cards in the final week to “educate” voters on how to vote and who for.
Republicans seem sure to have more trouble clearing the field than Democrats did in paving the way for Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante. Almost from the moment he became the first Democrat to defy Davis by putting his name on the replacement ballot, party leaders were favorably disposed toward him.
As lieutenant governor, said San Diego area Congressman Bob Filner, he’s the logical backup to Davis. But other Democrats noted that if the recall is about change, Bustamante will have to prove he can be different from Davis.
Garamendi, the only other major Democrat to take out filing papers, had already demonstrated an affinity for change, taking on insurance companies and other entrenched interests. But he’s not rich enough to self-finance a full-fledged campaign, and quickly concluded he could not come up with enough donations to run a credible race. So he got out painlessly, leaving the party indebted to him.
It’s not so easy for the Republicans. Three of their four major candidates can easily afford a fully self-paid campaign, so money alone won’t eliminate anybody.
After the massive publicity accompanying his entrance to the race, actor Arnold Schwarzenegger would have a hard time dropping out. And who can make 2002 loser Bill Simon quit, if losing to the extremely unpopular Davis couldn’t convince him to give up politics? Then there’s former Los Angeles Olympics chief and ex-baseball Commissioner Peter Ueberroth, who got in the race after Schwarzenegger did, thus demonstrating it will take a lot to discourage him.
And there’s Ventura County state Sen. Tom McClintock, who missed becoming state controller last fall by a hair. He’s the choice of purist conservatives. If the three big money Republicans stay in, McClintock may figure he can get enough votes from the far right for the mere plurality it will take to win.
What might make some of these folks drop out? Schwarzenegger could conceivably become discouraged if he’s unable to handle tough questions on the campaign trail. There’s already some inconsistency in his infant campaign.
Example: He promised to “clean up Sacramento.” But it’s hard to see how he can do this when Sacramento insiders compose the bulk of his campaign team. There are strategists George Gorton, Joe Shumate and Bob White, plus press spokesman Sean Walsh. Gorton and White were the closest aides of ex-Gov. Pete Wilson, while Walsh was Wilson’s press secretary for awhile. Shumate was a top aide to ex-Insurance Commissioner Chuck Quackenbush during the scandal which drove him from office.
Can this lineup of Sacramento veterans be considered a big change for the better?
And how will Schwarzenegger respond if the press begins digging up dirt on his personal life, as some movie magazines have done?
Ueberroth could probably be convinced to drop out if it becomes clear he has no chance. McClintock would likely quit for the good of the party if it seems his continued presence may cause a Democratic victory.
All this could leave Schwarzenegger and Simon facing off against Bustamante, Independent Arianna Huffington and the Green Party’s Peter Camejo after the de facto primary.
It’s true that special elections tend to favor Republicans, but this is a very special special election, likely to draw at least as many Democrats as Republicans. In that case, the advantage might go to Bustamante and the Democrats, provided they can convince party loyalists determined to vote no on recalling Davis to stick around and vote for a replacement Democrat, just in case.
