Published in cooperation between Binance and the Gilroy Dispatch
Bitcoin has been on a historic losing streak, which could see it end six months in the red. Yet this is not a nail in the coffin, and could be a great buying point for long-term investors.
Bitcoin has dropped in price rapidly due to ongoing tensions in the Middle East. This oil slump has pushed people away from risk assets, providing a record fall in prices for the cryptocurrency. Is this a sustained trend, or could it provide a great opportunity for those who want to accumulate Bitcoin after a long period of highs?
The Current Bitcoin Situation
Bitcoin is up slightly on the month, edging forward by 2 percent. This will only be true if it manages to remain above the $68,000 level. By no means is this a given, however, and a monthly close in the red will mark six monthly losses. This has not occurred since the crash from August 2018 to January 2019. Currently, the Bitcoin price live stands at $71,135 as of March 24, 2026, up from $67,678 on Monday, 23.
Most of Bitcoin’s low price woes in the last two weeks can be attributed to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Crypto exchange Binance noted that Iran’s reported naval mine deployment turns the shock from “supply disruption” into a chokepoint scenario. They pointed out that with shipping traffic down 95 percent, clearance is likely to take weeks even if diplomacy improves.
Bitcoin Against Gold
Bitcoin is holding against its 200-week moving average of $59,000 as of March 24, 2026. To the surprise of many, Bitcoin has also recently managed to show relative strength against gold. It is on track for its first monthly positive candle against the asset, not seen since gold dashed into a bull market. Since reaching an all-time high in January, gold has fallen 25 percent. This has wiped $7.5 trillion from its market cap.
On the first day of the Iran conflict, gold prices jumped to $5,400/oz. Since then, they have been on a downward trend, falling to lows of $4,100/oz. This has meant a 24 percent drop, wiping out all it has gained from the year.
All this has consolidated the notion that Bitcoin remains a risk asset and is not a safe haven, despite the narrative espoused over the past few years. A rise to record highs of $126,000 has seen its price almost halve. Global banks are still increasingly suspicious of it, as are whole global economic powerhouses like China.
Crypto-related equities have, however, shown some bounce back on the announcement of a ceasefire. At the top of this, Hut 8 (HUT) rose by 11 percent. Others moved between 6 percent to 7 percent. Crypto exchange Binance also noted that U.S. participation in BTC is reappearing. This comes from the Spot ETF volume share, which has risen, but ETFs are still only 9 percent of the total BTC spot volume. This is far below the 30–40 percent equity norm, implying room for expansion if the regime stabilizes. All of this was joined by a movement upwards of around 1.2 percent for the Nasdaq and S&P 500.
What Could Lead to a Rebound?
The overriding factor is whether oil will continue to flow through the Strait of Hormuz. This could have a huge impact on prices across the globe, leading to changes in interest and inflation rates, along with job data. Crucially, the impact will be delayed, so the worst could yet be to come. Oil has managed to remain at $100 per barrel, despite a drop in U.S. equities.
Should it open, then this will alleviate some of the pressure. This has already been seen in the price movements announced with regard to a ceasefire. Any more steps towards permanent resolutions may see people take more solace in riskier assets like Bitcoin. If it continues, the opposite could be true, and safe-haven assets, particularly gold, may see a rise, especially if it can break through the $4,400 resistance level.
Even with this alleviation, there are still domestic issues that could influence it. Binance also stated that this period of the midterm cycle is also one of fragility. They added that midterm years historically see deeper drawdowns, with the S&P down 16 percent average peak-to-trough. The post-midterm 12 months have been the strongest window, with powerful rebounds once uncertainty clears.
They also noted how stagflation is a real threat. CPI and PCE matter even more than usual because oil’s pass-through hasn’t fully hit the prints yet. Any upside surprise delays cuts and reinforces a supply-shock pricing regime, with second-round food inflation risk building due to fertilizer and input disruptions.
As a result, Bitcoin’s future really does hang in the balance. Even if tensions ease in the Middle East, there are still domestic factors and pressures to consider. These include unemployment, interest rates and the general cooling of the economy. For some, this may be a great time to set up long-term investments for Bitcoin, but for those looking for short-term gains, it may be worth looking elsewhere.
