Although small percentage, county’s votes mirror state’s
By Anthony Ha staff writer
San Benito –To many Californians, San Benito County – if they’ve heard of it at all – has tiny, almost insignificant role to play in the grand arena of state politics. And judging strictly by the number of registered voters, they’re right; San Benito’s voters make up about 0.1 percent of the statewide electorate.
But in one respect, this little county punches above its weight. In practically every statewide election since 1998, the countywide results have mirrored the state’s votes within a percentage point or two. For example, in the special recall election of Oct. 2003, 55 percent of San Benito voters supported ousting then-Governor Gray Davis, while 45 percent opposed it. Statewide, voters split in the same proportion, 55 percent for the recall, 45 percent against. The results have been so consistently similar that the Los Angeles Time recently labeled San Benito a “political bellwether.”
But as bellwethers of statewide politics go, San Benito doesn’t seem a likely candidate. The Free Lance contacted Terry Christensen, a professor of political science at San Jose State University who recently co-authored a book about the recall, and he admitted he’d never heard of the similarity.
“It’s surprising that (the county) so closely reflects the state, partly because of the demographics, partly because it’s still a rural county,” Christensen said.
In particular, the U.S. Census Bureau’s statistics show that 49.7 percent of San Benito residents are of Hispanic or Latino origin, compared to 34.7 percent of California. The county’s median household income of around $56,000 is almost $10,000 higher than the state average. And San Benito’s biggest city is Hollister, while California contains several major urban areas.
Some community members were equally mystified by the close match between San Benito election results and California’s.
“I’m surprised, because San Benito has such small amount of people compared to California,” said nurse’s aide Linda Bedolla.
Others said that although they hadn’t heard about the similarities, they weren’t surprised; most people seemed to think the elections reflected well on San Benito.
“San Benito County, especially Hollister, represents a segment of California,” said Ernesto Coto, a self-employed jeweler. “We’re not just a segregated town out in the boonies.”
Rohena Barra, a homemaker who works part-time in a medical office, offered a similar take on the number.
“These are educated people, so it’s not surprising,” she said.
After some thought, San Jose State’s Christensen offered some possible explanations, particularly regarding why a county and a state with substantially different ethnic demographics might have virtually identical election results.
“In general, Hispanics tend to be underrepresented among registered voters, and then among those registered voters, their turnout tends to be lower,” he said.
Christensen also suggested that the local media might have a significant influence, and he wondered if the county’s voter registration might match the state’s.
An inspection of the secretary of state’s voter registration statistics bore out Christensen’s speculation. San Benito County’s registered voters are 45 percent Democratic, 34 percent Republican and 17 percent undeclared. California’s voters break down in almost exactly the same way: 43 percent Democratic, 34 percent Republican and 19 percent independent.
