Economy to see continued growth
The California economy will continue to see robust growth
through 2008, with Gross Domestic Product expected to expand an
average rate of 6 percent over the period, according to the
quarterly state and regional forecast released today by University
of the Pacific’s Business Forecasting Center.
Economy to see continued growth
The California economy will continue to see robust growth through 2008, with Gross Domestic Product expected to expand an average rate of 6 percent over the period, according to the quarterly state and regional forecast released today by University of the Pacific’s Business Forecasting Center.
Highlights from the comprehensive report include:
– Payroll employment forecast to grow at 1.7 percent in 2006 with growth slowing to 1.3 percent by 2008.
– The effects from Hurricane Katrina, which caused a temporary slowing of economic growth and a surge in consumer price inflation at the end of 2005, diminish as the economy enjoys a rebound in the first half of 2006.
– The Grinch didn’t steal Christmas this year, but Katrina and Rita made an attempt.
– Retailers are swimming against the tide of elevated gasoline, natural gas and heating oil prices. Aggressive pricing from the start of the holiday shopping season will keep them from losing ground.
– High growth sectors: Professional and Business Services and Transportation, Warehousing and Utility, and Education and Health Services.
– The housing soufflé has finished baking. Housing starts peak in 2005 and begin to gradually fall off in 2006-08 as mortgage rates rise to 7.6 percent by 2008.
– Construction employment growth slows from 5.6 percent in 2005 to 1.4 percent in 2008.
– Gross State Product to grow at nearly 6.9 percent in 2005, slowing to an average growth rate of 5.7 percent over 2006-2008.
– Unemployment falls slightly from 5.4 percent in 2005 and hovers around 5.3 percent (2005-2008).
– Personal income growth remains strong with growth averaging 6.3% (2005-2008)
The complete forecasts for California and 11 metropolitan regions may be downloaded at http://forecast.pacific.edu.
