Ever since my econ professor told me that in economics the
independent variable is graphed on the vertical axis and the
dependent variable on the horizontal axis, precisely the opposite
of algebra, I have been suspicious of what Thomas Carlyle
dubbed
”
the dismal science.
”
Ever since my econ professor told me that in economics the independent variable is graphed on the vertical axis and the dependent variable on the horizontal axis, precisely the opposite of algebra, I have been suspicious of what Thomas Carlyle dubbed “the dismal science.”
With physics, chemistry, and thermodynamics, one can study the subject, make predictions based on the science, and have the universe confirm that the laws work. Economics seems less like a science and more like a juggernaut, poorly understood, with hubristic priests who attempt to guide and goad it in the direction they choose. (Robinson Crusoe economics and Austrian economics seem more sensible, at least as far as popular accounts go, but I have never seen a mathematical college textbook based on either. Go figure.)
When politicians and bureaucrats attempt to control the economy by government fiat, the juggernaut runs amok, and we have the Great Depression, and conventional economic theory is mute as to why it happened. Tuesday’s Dispatch was full of economic news, all dismal. Item: Gilroy Unified gained 335 students this year, a 3% increase. GUSD terms it a sharp increase. It is not a sharp increase. It is a minor increase, but it is badly distributed.
At the elementary level, El Roble’s enrollment is down 9% while enrollments at Las Animas and Rod Kelley are each up more than 10%. At the middle schools, Ascension Solorsano is up 9% while Brownell and South Valley are down 3 and 5%, respectively.
The high schools are not as badly impacted: The Gavilan Early College Academy doubled in size, but it was a planned doubling; Mt. Madonna shrank.
Economics and politics enter the picture because the school district and city are both feeling the pinch because they anticipated revenue from developer fees that have not materialized. With the present housing market in the cellar, developers are not building the 589 houses that they are permitted to build: why build houses to sell at a loss? The school district says it needs the money from the new home construction to pay off debt obligations.
Now, call me stupid, but the school district is straining because of 335 extra students. If the 589 houses had been built, we would surely have had even more new students. And would not the developer fees be needed to build new classrooms, maybe even a new school to educate the students? Is that not what developer fees are allegedly for? And where did these “debt obligations” come from? Could they be from a previous bond?
The school district is asking for another bond now, on the November ballot. Is this the time to deliberately acquire more debt obligations? How do we intend to pay them off? The city also has a bond on the ballot to finance the construction of a new library. The city cheerfully gives the outgoing city clerk a pay raise to $100,000 so that we can base her retirement on the larger amount, and hires the new city clerk at $91,000, which makes me wish I had slightly less than an AA instead of a BS in engineering.
The city buys Bonfante Gardens. But when it comes time to build a new library, the city asks the voters to approve a bond that will increase the average property tax bill in Gilroy by $140 per year. There are reportedly bonds totaling $1.3 billion on this November’s ballot, and they will probably all pass.
Historically, 60% of the bonds that require a two-thirds vote pass, and 90% of the bonds that only require 55% of the vote pass.
Americans are generous. Americans and America are also heavily in debt. Taxes will go up substantially next year, because the U.S. treasury department is bailing out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. David Hart of Gilroy Mortgage said, “If they don’t do it, it will be disastrous.” I agree.
But if Alan Greenspan, arch-priest of the Federal Reserve, had not loosened the rules back in the last years of the Clinton administration to allow sub-prime lending, we would not have a sub-prime foreclosure crisis today.
There is nothing I can do about Alan Greenspan. But I can vote no on all bonds and taxes. And I will.
