No one – probably including Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger – knows
whether he will call a special election next fall to consider a
wide agenda of state government changes that some will consider
reform.
No one – probably including Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger – knows whether he will call a special election next fall to consider a wide agenda of state government changes that some will consider reform.
But two things are clear as year’s end approaches: One is that not one proposal Schwarzenegger has discussed is even close to qualifying for any election, let alone a $60 million special election that would assure Californians an unprecedented five statewide votes in five years. The other certainty is that the more talk there is of a special election, the better for Schwarzenegger.
That’s because the scene Schwarzenegger faces today would amount to disaster for any governor without his star power. Glitz, glamour and constant optimistic talk – not anything real in Sacramento or around the state – are the reasons Schwarzenegger still carries fabulously high poll ratings and remains a formidable national and international figure.
Reform talk now distracts from reality, and the governor plainly needs all the distractions he can muster if he hopes to prevent voters from focusing on an array of pressing and unpleasant realities. Here are just a few examples:
n State revenues are up, but nowhere near enough to make up a projected $7 billion budget deficit. And this year Schwarzenegger cannot float a big bond issue to push this shortfall into the indefinite future, as he did last year. What’s more, a lawsuit by the conservative Pacific Legal Foundation may block him from selling some of the bonds voters have already authorized.
n Teachers’ unions, school districts and public universities loudly insist that Schwarzenegger live up to the promise he made last year that any budget henceforth will not cut into either their funds or their scheduled funding increases.
n Highway construction advocates are warning the governor to restore billions of dollars in voter-approved road funding that was lopped from last year’s spending plan, or face a ballot initiative campaign this fall.
n Two independent analyses of Schwarzenegger’s pet California Performance Review plan for revamping state government concluded in the last month that the proposal wouldn’t save nearly as much as the governor claims and might not make government any more efficient.
Taken together, these factors will make balancing the budget far tougher than it was last time around. They would threaten the popularity of any other governor, but have so far not put a dent in Schwarzenegger’s poll standing.
One reason for this is that he’s skillfully steered talk away from his troubles and toward reform proposals. He’s talked of changing the way legislative and congressional districts are designed, even advocating a rare mid-decade revamping of lines drawn by incumbents to protect themselves and their preferred successors. There’s also talk of putting a balanced budget initiative on the ballot and another that would require lawmakers to accept Schwarzenegger’s proposed government restructuring unless they can muster a two-thirds majority against it.
Schwarzenegger and his staff even have discussed a possible law forbidding political fund-raising during the budgeting process, a time when the governor himself raised more than $10 million last year.
All these plans have two things in common: They have created headlines and diverted attention from the governor’s very real problems, and they are nowhere near qualifying for any ballot, whether for a regular election or a special one. It’s a virtual certainty legislators won’t put any of these notions on the ballot, and as of mid-December, no one was collecting initiative petition signatures for any of them, either.
“It could be Schwarzenegger really will call a special election, or try to,” said Ted Costa, head of the People’s Advocate citizen lobby and the official sponsor of the recall petitions that led to ousting Davis and electing Schwarzenegger. “There’s a chance he really means it and will put forward reforms. He needs this. If he doesn’t balance the budget without raising taxes and he also does no reform, then he’s really in trouble, star power or not. His popularity would drop to 30 percent. He’s talked the talk, now he’s got to start walking the walk.”
Costa is making his own effort to put redistricting reform on the next ballot via the initiative route, but his proposal has yet to gather any significant number of signatures.
No one doubts Schwarzenegger could gather the signatures needed to qualify all these measure if he tried. Most are also good ideas. But for Schwarzenegger, they may be more useful as talking points than as reality, so long as they continue taking the public’s eye off his very real and present problems.
